Tech / Media / Telecom

Mr. Sagawa leads the Technology, Media and Telecom practices at SSR.  He has worked in and around the industries for over 20 years, including his 11 year tenure as a senior research analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.  While at Bernstein, he was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team in three different categories, including the number one position in wire-line communications equipment after his prescient call in September 2000 noted that cash strapped telecom carriers would be unable to pay for technology purchase commitments and correctly predicted the subsequent collapse in the sector.  In his most recent position at Bernstein, Paul conceived and launched a new business area as the firm’s first Small Cap Equity Strategist. Prior to Bernstein, Paul spent six and half years at McKinsey and Company, rising to the position of technology sector specialist in recognition of his communications industry acumen.  His earlier experience includes three years as a sales representative for AT&T’s equipment business.  Paul earned his BA in Economics and MBA from Harvard University.

Coverage Universe

In order to understand dynamics at the sector, subsector and firm level, we monitor relative valuation and share price performance throughout technology, media and telecom. By tracking firms relative to their (cap-weighted) subsectors as well as subsectors relative to their sector and the broader market we are able to highlight high and low outliers, track variability in relative performance and steer our analysis to the most investable opportunities.  To do demonstrate this, we maintain and track quarterly model portfolios based on themes identified in our research. We typically add and remove constituents each quarter, and track performance between updates. Recent performance appears below.

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Recent Blog Posts

January 14, 2015 – Ten Investible Things That We Think Will Happen in 2015

2014 was a relatively quiet year in TMT, with the BABA IPO and the iPhone6 arguably the biggest events for investors. Our 2014 new year’s predictions were more on target than not, with calls for Samsung’s smartphone woes, IP litigation fizzling, deteriorating TV viewership, upside growth in digital ads, the rise of SaaS and the separation of the big 3 IaaS players from the pack all ringing true. Still, AAPL surprised us with the exceptional iPhone6, wireless residential broadband remains an unappreciated future, and S continued to execute like S. We are back with new predictions, listed below, including our top 5 stock picks for 2015: TWTR, TMUS, WDAY, QCOM and AMZN. Our 2014 picks were overwhelmed by the extraordinarily poor performance of S, and while we have certainly taken some risks with this year’s choices, none of them appear to have the potential for an S level disaster....See more at our TMT blog

Research Archive

Registered clients can access the full-text of Paul Sagawa’s published research here. Recent work includes: US Telecom: Merger Mania! Telecom Bankers Rejoice! TMT: The Advertising Revolution Will Not Be Televised TMT: “Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast!” eBay: Betting Big on the Future of Retail TMT: Don’t Rain on My IPO Facebook: Dream Until Your Dreams Come True SaaS: After the Levee Breaks – Competition in Software TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall Twitter: Out of the Nest, Into the Sky Smartphones Today: Looking High and Low Mobile Payments: From Cards, to Smartphones and the Cloud Mobile Devices: The PC-ification of the Smartphone The War on TV (4 part series covering set-top boxes, content, advertising, and service providers)  

Audio Archive

September 18, 2013: (Sagawa and Mason) Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators *Note audio files are secure, please contact your SSR sales rep for a login ID and password to access our research archive.



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