Tech / Media / Telecom


Mr. Sagawa leads the Technology, Media and Telecom practices at SSR.  He has worked in and around the industries for over 20 years, including his 11 year tenure as a senior research analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.  While at Bernstein, he was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team in three different categories, including the number one position in wire-line communications equipment after his prescient call in September 2000 noted that cash strapped telecom carriers would be unable to pay for technology purchase commitments and correctly predicted the subsequent collapse in the sector.  In his most recent position at Bernstein, Paul conceived and launched a new business area as the firm’s first Small Cap Equity Strategist.

Prior to Bernstein, Paul spent six and half years at McKinsey and Company, rising to the position of technology sector specialist in recognition of his communications industry acumen.  His earlier experience includes three years as a sales representative for AT&T’s equipment business.  Paul earned his BA in Economics and MBA from Harvard University.

Coverage Universe

In order to understand dynamics at the sector, subsector and firm level, we monitor relative valuation and share price performance throughout technology, media and telecom. By tracking firms relative to their (cap-weighted) subsectors as well as subsectors relative to their sector and the broader market we are able to highlight high and low outliers, track variability in relative performance and steer our analysis to the most investable opportunities.  To do demonstrate this, we maintain and track quarterly model portfolios based on themes identified in our research. We typically add and remove constituents each quarter, and track performance between updates. Recent performance appears below.

2014.03.10 TMT Model Portfolios

Recent Blog Posts

November 20, 2013 – Quick Thoughts: QCOM – In the Right Place at the Right Time

Coming off of a fiscal year where it broadly surprised with 30% revenue growth, Qualcomm was brimming with confidence at its annual analyst conference. The message was simple: 1) The wireless device market will remain strong, generating royalty growth and semiconductor opportunity far into the future; 2) Qualcomm can take even more market share and address an ever larger piece of the content of devices based on its widening technology advantages; and 3) New opportunities in adjacent markets, like automotive, home automation, wearable technology, and ultrabooks, are increasingly available to Qualcomm. In this context, management’s guidance for “double digit” top-line and bottom-line average annual growth over the next five years seems quite conservative.

...See more at our TMT blog

 

Research Archive

Registered clients can access the full-text of Paul Sagawa’s published research here.

Recent work includes:

TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall

Twitter: Out of the Nest, Into the Sky

Smartphones Today: Looking High and Low

Mobile Payments: From Cards, to Smartphones and the Cloud

Mobile Devices: The PC-ification of the Smartphone

The War on TV (4 part series covering set-top boxes, content, advertising, and service providers)

Data Center Spending: We Don’t Get Fooled Again!

Qualcomm: Whadda We Gotta Do to Get Some Respect Around Here!

Audio Archive

September 18, 2013: (Sagawa and Mason) Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators

*Note audio files are secure, please contact your SSR sales rep for a login ID and password to access our research archive.

 

 


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