Tech / Media / Telecom

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Mr. Sagawa leads the Technology, Media and Telecom practices at SSR.  He has worked in and around the industries for over 20 years, including his 11 year tenure as a senior research analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.  While at Bernstein, he was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team in three different categories, including the number one position in wire-line communications equipment after his prescient call in September 2000 noted that cash strapped telecom carriers would be unable to pay for technology purchase commitments and correctly predicted the subsequent collapse in the sector.  In his most recent position at Bernstein, Paul conceived and launched a new business area as the firm’s first Small Cap Equity Strategist. Prior to Bernstein, Paul spent six and half years at McKinsey and Company, rising to the position of technology sector specialist in recognition of his communications industry acumen.  His earlier experience includes three years as a sales representative for AT&T’s equipment business.  Paul earned his BA in Economics and MBA from Harvard University.

 

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Coverage Universe

In order to understand dynamics at the sector, subsector and firm level, we monitor relative valuation and share price performance throughout technology, media and telecom. By tracking firms relative to their (cap-weighted) subsectors as well as subsectors relative to their sector and the broader market we are able to highlight high and low outliers, track variability in relative performance and steer our analysis to the most investable opportunities.  To do demonstrate this, we maintain and track quarterly model portfolios based on themes identified in our research. We typically add and remove constituents each quarter, and track performance between updates. Our TMT AI heatmap as well as long model portfolio appears below.

2016-11-09-ai-heatmap

2016-11-09-long-model-portfolio

Recent Blog Posts

Recent Blog Posts

Ten Investible Things That We Think Will Happen in 2017

2016 was an odd year in TMT investing. The first 6-7 weeks were brutal for the cloud-stocks we favor, and we spent the next several months digging out. By Nov. 8, our 15-stock model portfolio was up 290 bp vs. the tech elements of the S&P 500, only to see the Trump rally kill 130 bp of relative performance. Still, of our investible things for 2016, we got 7 right against 3 wrong. Solid marks for negative calls on fixed broadband, security, smartphones, and OTAs; and for thumbs up on self-driving cars, big internet players, and high $ deals. Linear TV didn’t quite break (we’ll double down for 2017), the spectrum sale, still in progress, doesn’t look likely to shake anything up, and our top picks were ruined by TWTR’s botched deal making. This year, we are looking for AI-as-a-Service, SaaS consolidation, cloud partnerships, AI-based security, virtual assistants, heavy competition in smartphones, the linear TV inflection point, the end of net neutrality and the rise of robo-taxis to make the news that moves the market. Our top longs? XLNX, CRM and TMUS. The naughty list? EXPE, ORCL and CBS…..See more at our TMT blog
Audio Archive

Audio Archive

September 18, 2013: (Sagawa and Mason) Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators *Note audio files are secure, please contact your SSR sales rep for a login ID and password to access our research archive. [/tab]

 

 

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