Published research
Healthcare
May 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Initial 2Q13 Estimate
May 16, 2013 – Buckle Up! A Summary of Adverse Selection Pressures on Health Insurance Exchanges
May 7, 2013 – Cheap, Shy or Just Misbehaving? PFE Sells Viagra Direct to Consumers
April 29, 2013 – Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses
April 19, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate
April 9, 2013 – SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values
April 2, 2013 – Private Health Exchanges: Why They’re Coming; What They Mean
March 20, 2013 – WAG/ABC – Quick Strategic Read-thru; Better for WAG than ABC
March 19, 2013 – The Razorback Alternative: Is Arkansas’ Medicaid Game Plan a Blueprint for Others?
March 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 1Q13 Estimate
March 11, 2013 – Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables
March 4, 2013 – The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013
February 26, 2013 – SSR Index of of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate
February 11, 2013 -Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector
January 16, 2013 – Flu Effects on US Health Demand
January 15, 2013 – The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP
December 17, 2012 – Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL
December 4, 2012 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated
November 19, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate
November 8, 2012 – An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines
October 22, 2012 - SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate
October 15, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects
October 1, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind
September 17, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds
September 4, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth
August 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth: Initial 3Q12 Estimates
August 8, 2012 – Co-Pay Cards: A Bottle for the Drug Pricing Genie
July 27, 2012 – Medicaid Eligibility Capped at 100 FPL: The Logical Outcome of the SCOTUS ACA Ruling
July 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Lowering Estimate Back to 3.1% from 3.3%
June 29, 2012 – ACA Post-SCOTUS – What Matters Now
June 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Raising Estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%
June 14, 2012 – The Mechanics of Commercial HMOs’ Gross Profits: Why MLRs Should Remain Stable
May 31, 2012 – The Apparent Link Between Employment and Healthcare Demand
May 17, 2012 – Why HMOs are Cheap, Despite Rising Utilization
May 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Services Demand
February 26, 2012 – Large cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable
February 6, 2012 – The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks
January 24, 2012 – Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power
January 12, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (Temporary) Reasons
November 14, 2011 – PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power
October 24, 2011 – ACA at the Supreme Court
October 11, 2011 – Below Zero and Falling Fast: Productivity as an Enterprise-Wide Crisis
October 6, 2011 – President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators
October 3, 2011 – Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements – AMP v NADAC
September 26, 2011 – CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP
September 9, 2011 – A Simple Formula for Drug Stock Selection
August 18, 2011 – CMS Takes Concrete Steps Towards Replacing AWP
August 15, 2011 – Market Appears to Misprice Risks to Healthcare Earnings from BCA
August 3, 2011 – Healthcare and the Budget Control Act of 2011
July 25, 2011 – ESRX, MHS, and the PBM Bear Case
July 11, 2011 – Why Employer Are Likely to Drop Health Insurance: A Simplified View
June 10, 2011 – What Next for the MLR cycle?
May 24, 2011 – Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?
May 5, 2011 – The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins
April 27, 2011 – The (Unfortunate) Irrelevance of ACOs
April 6, 2011 – CMS says AMP is Coming; Why Ortho Demand May Slow
March 22, 2011 – Medicaid Cost Pressures Intensify on the States
March 2, 2011 – Post-2014 Reform Related Volume Gains are Modest
February 11, 2011 – PFE Decides to Shrink; HHS ends AWP; and Drug Pricing Hits a Speedtrap
January 26, 2011 – Ranked Preferences Across Healthcare (Sub-sector by Sub-sector)
January 5, 2011 – Copay Cards and the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth
December 1, 2010 – Demand Trend Improves Starting 4q; Why HDLC Drugs May be Bigger Than You Think
November 10, 2010 – Uncertainty and Motive in Pharmacy Dispensing Markups
October 29, 2010 – Why Generic Dispensing Margins (Eventually) Must Fall
October 4, 2010 – What a Republican House Means for Health Reform
September 22, 2010 – Skeptic’s Guide to Drug Stock Selection
September 7, 2010 – Why US Healthcare Demand Appears to be Falling
August 24, 2010 – Single-payor (read European) Governments and Your Healthcare Portfolio
July 29, 2010 – Consumers Add Risk; Insurers Add Power; Consequences for Providers and Suppliers
July 8, 2010 – Big Pharma’s Tenuous Grip on the Emerging Markets
June 15, 2010 – Why UNH and WLP Are Better Positioned for Reform Than AET or CI
May 26, 2010 – Why the Average Employer Will Drop Health Insurance in 2014
April 26, 2010 – Practical Boundaries of Health Insurance Regulation
March 29, 2010 – 3 Reform Realities That Aren’t Priced In
March 18, 2010 – Handicapping the Whip Count: Odds Still Against Passage
March 10, 2010 – PBM GMs: This Looks Like the End of the Cycle
March 4, 2010 – Last Chance: Betting the Ranch on a Weak Hand
February 26, 2010 – Post-Summit: Why Large Reforms Almost Certainly Can’t Pass
February 17, 2010 – Introducing our Healthcare Demand Model
February 3, 2010 – Health Insurers Antitrust Exemption
February 1, 2010 – Residual Reform Risks; Subsector Estimates Do Not Add Up
January 20, 2010 – The Political (As Opposed to Procedural) Death of Health Reform
January 12, 2010 – GMs Too High for Pharma, Too Low for HMOs; Why the House Won’t Roll Over
December 2, 2009 – Biggest Reform Worry No One is Watching, Labor, and Massachusetts
November 17, 2009 – Why Health Reform Legislation Won’t Pass; More About Insurers’ 2010 Margins
November 2, 2009 – HMO & PBM Margins Expand; Public Option Has the Blues
October 20, 2009 – Health Insurers 40% Undervalued
October 6, 2009 – The New Abnormal: Health Costs Derail Fiscal Recovery
September 21, 2009 – Why the Senate Finance Healthcare Bill Doesn’t Work
September 8, 2009 – Reform Unlikely to be Large; Risk to Insurers Falls
August 18, 2009 – Political Economics and Investment Relevance of American Health Reform
Tech / Media / Telecom
May 21, 2013 – Data Center Spending: We Don’t Get Fooled Again!
May 1, 2013 – Qualcomm: Whadda We Gotta Do to Get Some Respect Around Here!
April 19, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: The IPOs are Coming! The IPOs are Coming!
April 2, 2013 – US Wireless Carriers: The Barbarians are at the Gate
March 13, 2013 – Mobile Semiconductors: In Search of the One Chip Solution
March 4, 2013 – TMT: In the Year 2020 – 8 Things We Think
February 14, 2013 – Microsoft: No More Mister Softy!
January 30, 2013 – Amazon: In Jeff Bezos We Trust
January 16, 2013 – Facebook: Stuck in the Friend Zone
January 8, 2013 – Small Cap TMT: Time to Stop Feeding the Bear
December 26, 2012 – Large Cap TMT Valuation: It’s Never ALL in the Price
December 4, 2012 – Google: The Biggest Hammer in a World Full of Nails
November 19, 2012 – Apple: Can a Leopard Change its Spots?
October 25, 2012 – Storage: All Roads Lead to the Cloud
October 3, 2012 – Wireless Carriers: Will the iPhone5 or New Spectrum Revive Carrier Competition?
September 11, 2012 – TMT in 2Q12: Investing for a Three Platform World
August 21, 2012 – Social Networking: The Millennial Application Moves Out of its Parents’ Basement
July 30, 2012 – Cloud Data Centers: Bigger, Faster, Cheaper!
July 12, 2012 – Online Video: Objects in the Mirror May be Closer than they Appear
July 2, 2012 – Portable Devices: Parts is Parts
June 12, 2012 – TMT Paradigm Shift! Which Side are You On?
May 29, 2012 – Video Advertising: The Incredible Disappearing Audience
May 15, 2012 – The Internet Revolution: It’s Not Social OR Mobile, It’s Apps
April 26, 2012 – Cheap Tech Redux: Sifting Through the Bargain Bin Again
April 2, 2012 – Telecom Carriers: Why Aren’t These Cyclicals Cycling?
March 15, 2012 – Television Networks: Betwixt and Between a World of Change
March 5, 2012 – 4Q11 Earnings Update: Plenty of Runway for Cloud Leaders
February 13, 2012 – The Future of Video Advertising: Three-screens, #hashtags, and Streams
January 31, 2012 – Multichannel TV: What, Me Worry?
January 19, 2012 – Virtualization and the Cloud
January 9, 2012 – Enterprise IT: Send in the Clouds
December 16, 2011 – The Four Horsemen of the Internet
December 1, 2011 – TMT in 3Q11 – Temporary Flight to Value But New Paradigm Growth Apparent
November 17, 2011 – The Open Source Software Threat
October 31, 2011 – Mobile Processors: Here, There, and Everywhere
October 13, 2011 – TMT M&A: Fat Wallets and Attractive Targets
September 19, 2011 – Patent Wars!
September 7, 2011 – TMT in 2Q11: Debt Crisis Aftermath Leaves Value Opportunities in Growth Themes
August 24, 2011 – Mobile Platforms: Integrating Everything
July 13, 2011 – Online Payments: Cut Up Your Credit Cards!
June 22, 2011 – Mobile Devices: Flying in the Clouds
June 7, 2011 – Cheap Tech: A Guide for Cautious Bottom Fishing
May 20, 2011 – Large Cap TMT: The Curse of Great Expectations – Launching a Model Portfolio
May 11, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: Time for a Three Month Check Up
April 21, 2011 – Internet Everything: The Coming War for the Consumer
April 13, 2011 – Energy IT: Green is Good
March 23, 2011 – Enterprise IT and the Cloud
March 9, 2011 – 4G: Faster, Cheaper, Better
February 24, 2011 – Mobile Advertising: Check In, Then, Check Out
February 8, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: The Idiosyncratic Method
January 24, 2011 – Storage:Disrupt This!
January 6, 2011 – Online TV: A Cycle Ride to The Tipping Point
December 22, 2010 – Net Neutrality: The FCC Takes Over the Top Under its Wing
December 7, 2010 – Enterprise IT Spending: Worry About the Government
November 22, 2010 – 4G: The Cure for the Common Cord
November 1, 2010 – Streaming On-line, On-Demand Video: Over-the-Top, On the Way
October 18, 2010 – It’s Not Just Advertising … It’s New and Improved Advertising!
September 30, 2010 – Large Cap Tech: The Revolution Will Be Streamed
September 11, 2010 – The Internet Core: We Can Rebuild it – We Have the Technology
August 24, 2010 – Portable Devices: Smartphones, and Tablets and Netbooks, Oh My!
August 12, 2010 – Internet TV: Extreme Make Over – Industry Edition
July 28, 2010 – PCs: Raging at the Dying of the Light
July 15, 2010 – Clouds: Who Will Get the Silver Lining?
June 30, 2010 – Apple vs. Google: Handicapping the Coming Battle for TMT Supremacy
June 15, 2010 – The Coming LED Lighting Revolution
June 2, 2010 – Enterprise Software Giants on the Prowl: Sorting Out M&A Targets
May 18, 2010 – The FCC “Gets It” – Competition, Not Market Power, Drives Innovation and Investment
May 3, 2010 – The Big Future of E-Learning: Beyond a Countercyclical Bump and a Student Loan Scare
April 22, 2010 – Quick Thoughts: Lower Subsidies Will Delay Handset Recovery
April 20, 2010 – A Thousand Paper Cuts: The Future of Cable TV
April 5, 2010 – The National Broadband Plan: Windfall for Wireless, but Catastrophe for Carriers
March 16, 2010 – TMT: The Only Constant is Change [INITIATING COVERAGE OF TMT]
Industrials / Basic Materials
May 14, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Outperformance Despite Negative Revisions
May 13, 2013 – DuPont: Betting the Farm – But Perhaps a Need to Crop the Portfolio?
May 9, 2013 – Getting Left Behind in the Market – Unless You Have A Story
May 2, 2013 – Monthly Review May 2013: Bulls Rave On, Industrials Sit on the Sidelines
April 25, 2013 – Price Weakness In A Slow Market – Can It Be Different This Time
April 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Stagnant Demand Undermining Pricing and Confidence
April 10, 2013 – US Energy Advantage: Unintended Consequence; Global Overbuilding of Petrochemicals
April 2, 2013 – Q1 2013: A Revisions Driven Quarter – Not Good For Our January Picks
April 2, 2013 – Aluminum: Always Darkest Before the Dawn
April 1, 2013 – Monthly Review April 2013: Capital Goods Out Of Favor
March 18, 2013 – Investing Around R&D: Looking For the Companies Losing the Least
March 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Few Cheap Stocks with Housing/Construction Exposure
March 5, 2013 – R&D in Industrials and Basics: Just Not Effective
March 4, 2013 – Monthly Review March 2013: More of the Same for the Industrials
February 15, 2013, – Chemicals Monthly: Cautious Guidance Appropriate, But A Drag On Performance
February 12, 2013 – US Basic Chemicals Economics: It Can’t Get Much Better Than This
February 4, 2013 – Monthly Review February 2013: Economic Uncertainty Rules The Day
February 1, 2013 – Optimists Are Everywhere and Most Underperform: A Quick Look at the S&P 500
January 25, 2013 – DuPont: The Uncomplicated Story and The What If?
January 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expanding Feedstock Advantage = Higher Values
January 10, 2013 – A Lesson in Expectations: Is There a Bubble In My Paint?
January 3, 2013 – 13 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2013 Assuming No Macro Change
January 2, 2013 – Monthly Review January 2013: Basic Materials Set to Open the Year At Extremes
December 18, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: The Rise (or Fall) of Propane
December 10, 2012 – Over-confidence Destroys Value
December 3, 2012 – Monthly Review December 2012: Post Election, Industrials See More of the Same
November 29, 2012 – Guidance Matters: Even for Chemicals
November 27, 2012 – Getting the Guidance Right: Some Sectors Are More Self Aware Than Others
November 19, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Down Come the Estimates – Again
November 5, 2012 – Monthly Review November 2012: End of Year Questionable as Earnings Disappoint
October 25, 2012 – Unyielding: The Supposed Thirst For Dividend Growth
October 17, 2012 – October Chemicals Monthly: Coated in Glory, But Looking Like a Peak
October 11, 2012 – Earnings Preview: Expectations Vary Widely, Valuations Equally
October 9, 2012 – Commodity Chemicals: Building In the US, an Adventure or an Investment
October 1, 2012 – Monthly Review October 2012: A Month of Mixed Messages
September 24, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Cost Advantage Either Priced In Or Not Evident
September 7, 2012 – Grossly Different: Gross Margin Trends Speak (Offset) Volumes
September 5, 2012 – Gross Expectations: Why the Paper Bet is a Bold One
September 4, 2012 – Monthly Review September 2012: Strong Showing for the Industrials
August 13, 2012 – Deal Flow Update: Big Cash Premiums Limit Odds of Success
August 7, 2012 – Monthly Review August 2012: Positives Driven By Cost Control
July 13, 2012 – Chemicals: Significant, Rather Than Incremental, Risks to 2H
July 10, 2012 – Housing: A Bright Spot, But Not Enough on Its Own
July 2, 2012 – Monthly Review July 2012: Still No Overall Reason To Get Excited
June 25, 2012 – Europe: A Big Deal and Unevenly Discounted
June 15, 2012 – Transports: Travelling Well
June 7, 2012 – Sector & Sovereign Industrials & Basic Materials: Monthly Review June 2012
June 5, 2012 – Inventory/Sales Follow Up
June 1, 2012 – Significant Downside Risk From An Inventory Correction – The Stars Are Aligned
May 29, 2012 – Industrials and Basics: We Should Be Deal Shy
May 14, 2012 – Chemicals Skepticism: A Wide Divergence, Commodities vs. Coatings
May 2, 2012 – The SSR Industrials & Basic Materials Skepticism Index
April 30, 2012 – Q1 So Far: Some Tears, Some Laughter, No Real Conviction
April 16, 2012 – Metals and Mining: Discounting Much More Than Appears To Be Going On
April 11, 2012 – North American Commodity Chemicals: Shale Gale Maybe, Windfall More Definitely