Published research

 

Healthcare

April 23, 2014 – PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger

April 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 1Q14 Estimates

April 16, 2014 – Medicaid HMOs: Growth Prospects Undervalued

April 14, 2014 – ACA Enrollment Round-Up

April 7, 2014 – Index of Generic Drug Acquisition Costs Now Available to Pharmacies Nationwide

April 2, 2014 – The Bull Case for PCSK9 (AMGN, SNY, REGN, PFE): Why Estimates Are Too Low

March 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 1Q14 Estimates

March 5, 2014 – The Trouble with Hospital Pricing

February 26, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 1Q14 Estimates

February 20, 2014 – ACA Enrollment and Adverse Selection Pressures – An Update

February 19, 2014 – Harvest Time for the Bill Collectors? The ACA’s Narrow Hospital Networks May Spur Demand for Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) Services

February 3, 2014 – Your (HIE-based) Plan Doesn’t Cover That: A Comparison of Drug Formularies On and Off the Health Insurance Exchanges

January 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 4Q13 Estimates and Thoughts on National Health Expenditure Data

January 20, 2014 – Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website

January 19, 2014 – Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges

January 7, 2014 – MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity

January 5, 2014 – Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies

December 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 4Q13 Estimates

December 15, 2013 – Why Adverse Selection is Likely on the HIEs: A Simple Model of Enrollment Behavior

December 1, 2013 – Higher Premiums – and Higher Deductibles: An Analysis of Health Plans on Offer in 2014

November 26, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 4Q13 Estimates

November 19, 2013 – NVS: Share of Peer Group R&D Spending Exceeds Share of Peer Group Innovation Produced

November 17, 2013 - ACA: Web Problems and Political Drama are Temporary. Ambivalence of the Uninsured is Permanent

October 24, 2013 – LLY: Whether High R&D/Sales is Defensible – an Empiric Dissent

October 23, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Inputs Delayed by Shutdown; Early Read Indicates Strong Flu Season

October 17, 2013 – DVA / FMS: Generic Epogen Accretive to EPS

September 24, 2013 – A Simple Yardstick for HIE Enrollment: CBO’s Revised Estimate Looks Like an Outer Bound

September 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q13 Estimate

September 17, 2013 – Update on Generic Dispensing Margins: Even Ahead of the CMS Final Rule, AWP is no Longer the Prevailing Medicaid Standard

September 11, 2013 – SSR Health’s ‘Hidden Pipeline’ Analysis: Relative Price and Value of Pre-Phase III Pipelines

September 4, 2013 – Evidence of Rate Shock on the Individual HIEs: Weak at Best

August 30, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 3Q13 Estimate

August 27, 2013 – Medicaid HMOs: More Growth, Less Risk

August 7, 2013 – Health Insurers’ Participation on the Health Insurance Exchanges; and Current-Market Premium and MLR Patterns by State

July 22, 2013 – Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market

July 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate

July 8, 2013 – The Practical Relevance of the Employer Mandate Delay

June 26, 2013 – The SSR Healthcare Quarterly, Inaugural Edition

June 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Interim 2Q13 Estimate

May 28, 2013 – PBM Bear Thesis Update: The AWP Alternatives Will Soon Be Here

May 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Growth, Initial 2Q13 Estimate

May 16, 2013 – Buckle Up! A Summary of Adverse Selection Pressures on Health Insurance Exchanges

May 7, 2013 – Cheap, Shy or Just Misbehaving? PFE Sells Viagra Direct to Consumers

April 29, 2013 – Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses

April 19, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate

April 9, 2013 – SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values

April 2, 2013 - Private Health Exchanges: Why They’re Coming; What They Mean

March 20, 2013 – WAG/ABC – Quick Strategic Read-thru; Better for WAG than ABC

March 19, 2013 – The Razorback Alternative: Is Arkansas’ Medicaid Game Plan a Blueprint for Others?

March 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 1Q13 Estimate

March 11, 2013 – Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables

March 4, 2013 – The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013

February 26, 2013 – SSR Index of of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate

February 11, 2013 -Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector

January 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 4Q12 Estimate – Expecting a Flu-Related Spike

January 16, 2013 – Flu Effects on US Health Demand

January 15, 2013 – The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP

December 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike

December 17, 2012 – Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL

December 4, 2012 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated

November 19, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate

November 8, 2012 – An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines

October 26, 2012 – Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise

October 22, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate

October 15, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects

October 1, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind

September 17, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows

September 17, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds

September 4, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth

August 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth: Initial 3Q12 Estimates

August 8, 2012 – Co-Pay Cards: A Bottle for the Drug Pricing Genie

July 27, 2012 – Medicaid Eligibility Capped at 100 FPL: The Logical Outcome of the SCOTUS ACA Ruling

July 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Lowering Estimate Back to 3.1% from 3.3%

July 9, 2012 – Medicaid Post-SCOTUS: Nevermind Whether States Choose to Expand; It Appears States Have the Choice to Shrink

June 29, 2012 – ACA Post-SCOTUS – What Matters Now

June 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Raising Estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%

June 14, 2012 – The Mechanics of Commercial HMOs’ Gross Profits: Why MLRs Should Remain Stable

May 31, 2012 – The Apparent Link Between Employment and Healthcare Demand

May 17, 2012 – Why HMOs are Cheap, Despite Rising Utilization

May 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Services Demand

May 2, 2012 – Is There a Cyclical Rebound in US Healthcare Demand? Evidence to Date from 1Q12 Results

April 16, 2012 – Healthcare Demand is (Cyclically) Improving Ahead of Estimates and Share Prices; Something Has to Give

March 27, 2012 – Why Losing the Individual Mandate is Good for HMOs, and other Earnings Consequences of Various Supreme Court Outcomes

March 12, 2012 – Accelerating Growth in Hospitals’, Physicians’ Offices and Other Care Settings’ Labor Hours Signals Improving Healthcare Demand

February 26, 2012 – Large cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable

February 6, 2012 – The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks

January 24, 2012 – Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power

January 12, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (Temporary) Reasons

November 14, 2011 – PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power

October 24, 2011 – ACA at the Supreme Court

October 11, 2011 – Below Zero and Falling Fast: Productivity as an Enterprise-Wide Crisis

October 6, 2011 – President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators

October 3, 2011 – Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements – AMP v NADAC

September 26, 2011 – CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP

September 9, 2011 – A Simple Formula for Drug Stock Selection

August 18, 2011 – CMS Takes Concrete Steps Towards Replacing AWP

August 15, 2011 – Market Appears to Misprice Risks to Healthcare Earnings from BCA

August 3, 2011 – Healthcare and the Budget Control Act of 2011

July 25, 2011 – ESRX, MHS, and the PBM Bear Case

July 11, 2011 – Why Employer Are Likely to Drop Health Insurance: A Simplified View

June 10, 2011 – What Next for the MLR cycle?

May 24, 2011 – Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?

May 5, 2011 – The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins

April 27, 2011 – The (Unfortunate) Irrelevance of ACOs

April 6, 2011 – CMS says AMP is Coming; Why Ortho Demand May Slow

March 22, 2011 – Medicaid Cost Pressures Intensify on the States

March 2, 2011 – Post-2014 Reform Related Volume Gains are Modest

February 11, 2011 – PFE Decides to Shrink; HHS ends AWP; and Drug Pricing Hits a Speedtrap

January 26, 2011 – Ranked Preferences Across Healthcare (Sub-sector by Sub-sector)

January 5, 2011 – Copay Cards and the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth

December 1, 2010 – Demand Trend Improves Starting 4q; Why HDLC Drugs May be Bigger Than You Think

November 10, 2010 – Uncertainty and Motive in Pharmacy Dispensing Markups

October 29, 2010 – Why Generic Dispensing Margins (Eventually) Must Fall

October 4, 2010 – What a Republican House Means for Health Reform

September 22, 2010 – Skeptic’s Guide to Drug Stock Selection

September 7, 2010 – Why US Healthcare Demand Appears to be Falling

August 24, 2010 – Single-payor (read European) Governments and Your Healthcare Portfolio

July 29, 2010 – Consumers Add Risk; Insurers Add Power; Consequences for Providers and Suppliers

July 8, 2010 – Big Pharma’s Tenuous Grip on the Emerging Markets

June 15, 2010 – Why UNH and WLP Are Better Positioned for Reform Than AET or CI

May 26, 2010 – Why the Average Employer Will Drop Health Insurance in 2014

May 10, 2010 – Bigger Truth About Medicaid Drug Price Effects; PBM Price Competition; and Why Insurers Are Still a Buy

April 26, 2010 – Practical Boundaries of Health Insurance Regulation

April 19, 2010 – Why the Market Assumes Too Much Margin Pressure on Insurers, Too Little on Innovators

April 5, 2010 – Why Insurers Work in a Recovery; Introducing Our Model of Private Insurance Premiums and MLRs

March 29, 2010 – 3 Reform Realities That Aren’t Priced In

March 18, 2010 – Handicapping the Whip Count: Odds Still Against Passage

March 10, 2010 – PBM GMs: This Looks Like the End of the Cycle

March 4, 2010 – Last Chance: Betting the Ranch on a Weak Hand

February 26, 2010 – Post-Summit: Why Large Reforms Almost Certainly Can’t Pass

February 17, 2010 – Introducing our Healthcare Demand Model

February 3, 2010 – Health Insurers Antitrust Exemption

February 1, 2010 – Residual Reform Risks; Subsector Estimates Do Not Add Up

January 20, 2010 – The Political (As Opposed to Procedural) Death of Health Reform

January 12, 2010 – GMs Too High for Pharma, Too Low for HMOs; Why the House Won’t Roll Over

December 21, 2009 – Prospects for Conference; HMO Relevance of New Senate Provisions; Reimportation is Back

December 16, 2009 – Reform Prospects, Declining Risks to Insurers, and Adverse Selection in the Exchanges

December 2, 2009 – Biggest Reform Worry No One is Watching, Labor, and Massachusetts

November 17, 2009 – Why Health Reform Legislation Won’t Pass; More About Insurers’ 2010 Margins

November 2, 2009 – HMO & PBM Margins Expand; Public Option Has the Blues

October 20, 2009 – Health Insurers 40% Undervalued

October 6, 2009 – The New Abnormal: Health Costs Derail Fiscal Recovery

September 21, 2009 – Why the Senate Finance Healthcare Bill Doesn’t Work

September 8, 2009 – Reform Unlikely to be Large; Risk to Insurers Falls

August 18, 2009 – Political Economics and Investment Relevance of American Health Reform

Tech / Media / Telecom

April 15, 2014 – TMT: Don’t Rain on My IPO

March 26, 2014 – Facebook: Dream Until Your Dreams Come True

March 2, 2014 – SaaS: After the Levee Breaks – Competition in Software

February 6, 2014 – Google: King of the Kloud Krewe

January 22, 2014 – Apple: Is Apple the New Microsoft?

January 6, 2014 – TMT: 10 Predictions for 2014

December 11, 2013 – TMT: The Good, the Bad and the MEH

November 25, 2013 – TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall

November 3, 2013 – Twitter: Out of the Nest, Into the Sky

October 23, 2013 – Twitter: There’s Gold in Them Thar Tweets

October 8, 2013 – Twitter: How Tweet it is!

October 1, 2013 – Smartphones Today: Looking High and Low

September 18, 2013 – Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators (AUDIO)

September 9, 2013 – Mobile Payments: From Cards, to Smartphones and the Cloud

September 3, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: Walking the Topline

August 1, 2013 – Mobile Devices: The PC-ification of the Smartphone

July 17, 2013: The War on TV Part IV: The Biggest Pipe Will NOT Win

July 2, 2013: The War on TV Part III – Reductio “Ad” Absurdum

June 19, 2013: The War on TV Part II – Streaming is Coming

June 12, 2013 – The War on TV: The Attack of the Boxes

May 21, 2013 – Data Center Spending: We Don’t Get Fooled Again!

May 1, 2013 – Qualcomm: Whadda We Gotta Do to Get Some Respect Around Here!

April 19, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: The IPOs are Coming! The IPOs are Coming!

April 2, 2013 – US Wireless Carriers: The Barbarians are at the Gate

March 13, 2013 – Mobile Semiconductors: In Search of the One Chip Solution

March 4, 2013 – TMT: In the Year 2020 – 8 Things We Think

February 14, 2013 – Microsoft: No More Mister Softy!

January 30, 2013 – Amazon: In Jeff Bezos We Trust

January 16, 2013 – Facebook: Stuck in the Friend Zone

January 8, 2013 – Small Cap TMT: Time to Stop Feeding the Bear

December 26, 2012 – Large Cap TMT Valuation: It’s Never ALL in the Price

December 4, 2012 – Google: The Biggest Hammer in a World Full of Nails

November 19, 2012 – Apple: Can a Leopard Change its Spots?

October 25, 2012 – Storage: All Roads Lead to the Cloud

October 3, 2012 – Wireless Carriers: Will the iPhone5 or New Spectrum Revive Carrier Competition?

September 11, 2012 – TMT in 2Q12: Investing for a Three Platform World

August 21, 2012 – Social Networking: The Millennial Application Moves Out of its Parents’ Basement

July 30, 2012 – Cloud Data Centers: Bigger, Faster, Cheaper!

July 12, 2012 – Online Video: Objects in the Mirror May be Closer than they Appear

July 2, 2012 – Portable Devices: Parts is Parts

June 12, 2012 – TMT Paradigm Shift! Which Side are You On?

May 29, 2012 – Video Advertising: The Incredible Disappearing Audience

May 15, 2012 – The Internet Revolution: It’s Not Social OR Mobile, It’s Apps

April 26, 2012 – Cheap Tech Redux: Sifting Through the Bargain Bin Again

April 2, 2012 – Telecom Carriers: Why Aren’t These Cyclicals Cycling?

March 15, 2012 – Television Networks: Betwixt and Between a World of Change

March 5, 2012 – 4Q11 Earnings Update: Plenty of Runway for Cloud Leaders

February 13, 2012 – The Future of Video Advertising: Three-screens, #hashtags, and Streams

January 31, 2012 – Multichannel TV: What, Me Worry?

January 19, 2012 – Virtualization and the Cloud

January 9, 2012 – Enterprise IT: Send in the Clouds

December 16, 2011 – The Four Horsemen of the Internet

December 1, 2011 – TMT in 3Q11 – Temporary Flight to Value But New Paradigm Growth Apparent

November 17, 2011 – The Open Source Software Threat

October 31, 2011 – Mobile Processors: Here, There, and Everywhere

October 13, 2011 – TMT M&A: Fat Wallets and Attractive Targets

September 19, 2011 – Patent Wars!

September 7, 2011 – TMT in 2Q11: Debt Crisis Aftermath Leaves Value Opportunities in Growth Themes

August 24, 2011 – Mobile Platforms: Integrating Everything

July 13, 2011 – Online Payments: Cut Up Your Credit Cards!

June 22, 2011 – Mobile Devices: Flying in the Clouds

June 7, 2011 – Cheap Tech: A Guide for Cautious Bottom Fishing

May 20, 2011 – Large Cap TMT: The Curse of Great Expectations – Launching a Model Portfolio

May 11, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: Time for a Three Month Check Up

April 21, 2011 – Internet Everything: The Coming War for the Consumer

April 13, 2011 – Energy IT: Green is Good

March 23, 2011 – Enterprise IT and the Cloud

March 9, 2011 – 4G: Faster, Cheaper, Better

February 24, 2011 – Mobile Advertising: Check In, Then, Check Out

February 8, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: The Idiosyncratic Method

January 24, 2011 – Storage:Disrupt This!

January 6, 2011 – Online TV: A Cycle Ride to The Tipping Point

December 22, 2010 – Net Neutrality: The FCC Takes Over the Top Under its Wing

December 7, 2010 – Enterprise IT Spending: Worry About the Government

November 22, 2010 – 4G: The Cure for the Common Cord

November 1, 2010 – Streaming On-line, On-Demand Video: Over-the-Top, On the Way

October 18, 2010 – It’s Not Just Advertising … It’s New and Improved Advertising!

September 30, 2010 – Large Cap Tech: The Revolution Will Be Streamed

September 11, 2010 – The Internet Core: We Can Rebuild it – We Have the Technology

August 24, 2010 – Portable Devices: Smartphones, and Tablets and Netbooks, Oh My!

August 12, 2010 – Internet TV: Extreme Make Over – Industry Edition

July 28, 2010 – PCs: Raging at the Dying of the Light

July 15, 2010 – Clouds: Who Will Get the Silver Lining?

June 30, 2010 – Apple vs. Google: Handicapping the Coming Battle for TMT Supremacy

June 15, 2010 – The Coming LED Lighting Revolution

June 2, 2010 – Enterprise Software Giants on the Prowl: Sorting Out M&A Targets

May 18, 2010 – The FCC “Gets It” – Competition, Not Market Power, Drives Innovation and Investment

May 3, 2010 – The Big Future of E-Learning: Beyond a Countercyclical Bump and a Student Loan Scare

April 22, 2010 – Quick Thoughts: Lower Subsidies Will Delay Handset Recovery

April 20, 2010 – A Thousand Paper Cuts: The Future of Cable TV

April 5, 2010 – The National Broadband Plan: Windfall for Wireless, but Catastrophe for Carriers

March 16, 2010 – TMT: The Only Constant is Change [INITIATING COVERAGE OF TMT]

Industrials / Basic Materials

April 21, 2014 – Alcoa: Self Help Can Take You Only So Far – Now We Need Pricing

April 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: A Volatile Market But Stable Energy

April 2, 2014 – SWK: Upside to Earnings and to Sentiment

March 31, 2014 – Monthly Review April 2014: March Madness No Cure as Industrials  Lag in Q1

March 31, 2014 – Petrochemical-Fest: A Summary of the Texas Gathering

March 24, 2014 – Seeding a Better Investment

March 23, 2014 – Why the Basic Chemical Investments in the US Will Likely Disappoint

March 19, 2014 – Peak Valuation in Some Commodity Chemicals: Something to Watch

March 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: All Getting Too Pricey 

March 13, 2014 – After the Storm Clouds Clear: What to Buy on A Dip

March 6, 2014 – 14 for 14 Portfolio Update: February and YTD Performance

March 5, 2014 – APD: Time to Move to the Sidelines – PX More Interesting

March 2, 2014 – Monthly Review March 2014: Divergent Month for Industrials & Basics as Market Rallies

February 24, 2014 – Dow: A More Optimal Path, But a Hard Destination to Reach

February 18, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Performance for the Commodity Companies Defies Costs

February 17, 2014 - Dow – Loeb versus Liveris – Watch From A Distance

February 9, 2014 – Rising Natural Gas Prices AND Rising Commodity Chemical Company Estimates: How Can This Be?

February 3, 2014 – 14 for 14 Portfolio Update: January Performance – A Better Start than Denver – Just!

February 3, 2014 – Should We Care About the Weather?

February 2, 2014 – Monthly Review February 2014: No January Effect as Industrials Fade With the Market

January 20, 2014 – Optimists Won in 2013, but Are Now More Optimistic and Much More Expensive

January 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: A Better Fundamental Year – Or Not Enough?

January 9, 2014 – Chemical Companies in 2014

January 6, 2014 – 14 for 14: 7 Attractive and 7 Overvalued Mid Cap Companies

January 5, 2014 – 14 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2014

January 1, 2014 – Monthly Review January 2014: Charging Into the New Year

December 30, 2013 – DD: Still An Interesting Investment

December 16, 2013 – US Ethylene: The Case For A Better 2014

December 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Looking Pricey as We Enter a New Year

December 10, 2013 – Exporting Shale: A More Logical Perspective

December 2, 2013 – Monthly Review December 2013: New Year Focus With Revisions Negative

November 18, 2013 – The Recommendation Signal: Another Reason to Look at DuPont

November 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Energy Volatility Distracts

November 7, 2013 – Lyondell: Growth or Income, Both Have Risk

November 6, 2013 – Valuation Spreads Extreme

October 31, 2013 – Monthly Review November 2013: Industrials Trail the Bull

October 29, 2013 – PPG: What Do You Have To Believe

October 28, 2013 – MOS/CF: Clever Bit of Financial Engineering for Both Companies

October 21, 2013 – Common Sense Restructuring: Some Money to Be Made

October 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: More Concerns Than Opportunities

October 6, 2013 – The Case for Stanley: Why Reversion to the Mean Often Works

October 3, 2013 – Capital Goods: Unloved and Presenting Opportunities

October 1, 2013 – Monthly Review October 2013: Industrials Riding the Wave of Easy Money

September 26, 2013 – Return on Capital Jumps: Some Stretched Expectations

September 23, 2013 – The State of the US Chemicals Industry

September 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Richer Sector With Limited Upside

September 16, 2013 – Optimism and Forecasting in the Chemical Industry

September 9, 2013 – Outliers: Where Valuation is Inconsistent with Return on Capital and Estimates

September 3, 2013 – Monthly Review September 2013: Industrials and Basics Hold In as Markets Brace for Taper

August 19, 2013 – Paint, A Band Wagon and Some Very Poor Analysis: Implications for PPG and RPM

August 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Chemicals Starting to Look Expensive (Except Ag)

August 5, 2013 – Understanding Transformational Change – The Eastman Example

August 1, 2013 – Monthly Review August 2013: Earnings Reveal Nothing New

July 25, 2013 – DuPont: Getting Appropriate Value for the Growth Engine

July 17, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expecting Negative Revisions for 2H 2013

July 11, 2013 – Q2 2013: Not the Brightest of Outlooks Expected

July 1, 2013 – July Monthly: Midway Through the Year, Metals Still Searching For a Floor

June 19, 2013 – Time to Let the CAT Out of the Bag

June 19, 2013 – Complexity, Volatility and a Market Where Neither Extremes Work Well

June 17, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Mixed Month Midway Through 2013

June 3, 2013 – Monthly Review June 2013: Industrials Reflect the Housing Comeback

May 30, 2013 – Capital Goods: Time to Play the Valuation Card

May 14, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Outperformance Despite Negative Revisions

May 13, 2013 – DuPont: Betting the Farm – But Perhaps a Need to Crop the Portfolio?

May 9, 2013 – Getting Left Behind in the Market – Unless You Have A Story

May 2, 2013 – Monthly Review May 2013: Bulls Rave On, Industrials Sit on the Sidelines

April 25, 2013 – Price Weakness In A Slow Market – Can It Be Different This Time

April 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Stagnant Demand Undermining Pricing and Confidence

April 10, 2013 – US Energy Advantage: Unintended Consequence; Global Overbuilding of Petrochemicals

April 2, 2013 – Q1 2013: A Revisions Driven Quarter – Not Good For Our January Picks

April 2, 2013 – Aluminum: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

April 1, 2013 – Monthly Review April 2013: Capital Goods Out Of Favor

March 18, 2013 – Investing Around R&D: Looking For the Companies Losing the Least

March 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Few Cheap Stocks with Housing/Construction Exposure

March 5, 2013 – R&D in Industrials and Basics: Just Not Effective

March 4, 2013 – Monthly Review March 2013: More of the Same for the Industrials

February 15, 2013, – Chemicals Monthly: Cautious Guidance Appropriate, But A Drag On Performance

February 12, 2013 – US Basic Chemicals Economics: It Can’t Get Much Better Than This

February 4, 2013 – Monthly Review February 2013: Economic Uncertainty Rules The Day

February 1, 2013 – Optimists Are Everywhere and Most Underperform: A Quick Look at the S&P 500

January 25, 2013 – DuPont: The Uncomplicated Story and The What If?

January 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expanding Feedstock Advantage = Higher Values

January 10, 2013 – A Lesson in Expectations: Is There a Bubble In My Paint? 

January 3, 2013 – 13 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2013 Assuming No Macro Change

January 2, 2013 – Monthly Review January 2013: Basic Materials Set to Open the Year At Extremes

December 18, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: The Rise (or Fall) of Propane

December 10, 2012 – Over-confidence Destroys Value

December 3, 2012 – Monthly Review December 2012: Post Election, Industrials See More of the Same

November 29, 2012 – Guidance Matters: Even for Chemicals

November 27, 2012 – Getting the Guidance Right: Some Sectors Are More Self Aware Than Others

November 19, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Down Come the Estimates – Again

November 9, 2012 – Increasing Payouts: Hard to Defend an Alternative Strategy – Dividend Theme Part 2

November 5, 2012 – Monthly Review November 2012: End of Year Questionable as Earnings Disappoint

October 25, 2012 – Unyielding: The Supposed Thirst For Dividend Growth

October 17, 2012 – October Chemicals Monthly: Coated in Glory, But Looking Like a Peak

October 11, 2012 – Earnings Preview: Expectations Vary Widely, Valuations Equally

October 9, 2012 – Commodity Chemicals: Building In the US, an Adventure or an Investment

October 1, 2012 – Monthly Review October 2012: A Month of Mixed Messages

September 24, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Cost Advantage Either Priced In Or Not Evident

September 7, 2012 – Grossly Different: Gross Margin Trends Speak (Offset) Volumes

September 5, 2012 – Gross Expectations: Why the Paper Bet is a Bold One

September 4, 2012 – Monthly Review September 2012: Strong Showing for the Industrials 

August 20, 2012 – Election Special: Interesting Historical Performance, But Limited Statistical Significance

August 13, 2012 – Deal Flow Update: Big Cash Premiums Limit Odds of Success

August 7, 2012 – Monthly Review August 2012: Positives Driven By Cost Control

July 13, 2012 – Chemicals: Significant, Rather Than Incremental, Risks to 2H

July 10, 2012 – Housing: A Bright Spot, But Not Enough on Its Own

July 2, 2012 – Monthly Review July 2012: Still No Overall Reason To Get Excited

June 25, 2012 – Europe: A Big Deal and Unevenly Discounted

June 15, 2012 – Transports: Travelling Well

June 7, 2012 – Sector & Sovereign Industrials & Basic Materials: Monthly Review June 2012

June 5, 2012 – Inventory/Sales Follow Up

June 1, 2012 – Significant Downside Risk From An Inventory Correction – The Stars Are Aligned

May 29, 2012 – Industrials and Basics: We Should Be Deal Shy

May 14, 2012 – Chemicals Skepticism: A Wide Divergence, Commodities vs. Coatings

May 2, 2012 – The SSR Industrials & Basic Materials Skepticism Index

April 30, 2012 – Q1 So Far: Some Tears, Some Laughter, No Real Conviction

April 16, 2012 – Metals and Mining: Discounting Much More Than Appears To Be Going On 

April 11, 2012 – North American Commodity Chemicals: Shale Gale Maybe, Windfall More Definitely

April 4, 2012 – (Initiating Coverage): Redemption May Come, But Only To Those Who Have Truly Suffered

Financials

April 7, 2014 – US Payments: A Primer on Merchant Acquiring

March 31, 2014 – DFS: Capital, Opportunity, and Discipline

March 28, 2014 – No Free Lunch: A Primer on Interchange and Debit

March 26, 2014 – AXP: Structurally Improving Business Model

March 12, 2014 – Barclays: At the Nadir

March 5, 2014 – The Dynamics of Net Interest Margins at Selected US Banks

February 28, 2014 – Bitcoin: Not a Bit and not a Coin

February 25, 2014 – Branch Banking in the US: There’s an App for That

February 17, 2014 - Barclays: Normalized Forward Dividend Yield of 4%

February 7, 2014 – Barclays: Expect Improved Guidance for Profitability and Leverage

February 2, 2014 – V and MA: Quantifying Concentration and Disintermediation Risk

January 29, 2014 – COF: Guidance Conservative; Reiterate 2015 EPS of $7.70 and $90 Price Target

January 26, 2014 – Mobile Wallets: Structural Advantage of MCX Over Apple, Google, PayPal, and Square

January 20, 2014 – BAC: Room to Run

January 10, 2014 – Game of Loans: Impact of Credit Tie on Competitive Dynamics in US Debit

January 5, 2014 - Implications for Visa and FIS of Structural Change in US Debit

December 16, 2013 – BAC: Closing the Margin Gap with WFC

December 8, 2013 – FIS: The MCX Opportunity for PayNet

December 2, 2013 – COF: Capital Generation and Digital Opportunity in Payments Can Drive 25% Upside

November 16, 2013 – Barclays: 2016 ROE Target Achievable Given Competitive Strength of Investment Bank

November 10, 2013 – Barclays: Swaps Compression/Central Clearing will Reduce the Balance Sheet Beyond Expectations

November 4, 2013 – US Payments: Winners and Losers in Mobile

October 29, 2013 – Regional Banks: Margin Sensitivity Driven by Deposit/Loan Ratio, not Gap Ratio

October 27, 2013 – Visa/MasterCard: Expect Bank Disintermediation of Networks for US Debit

October 25, 2013 – Investment Banking: FICC Returns will Increase as Electronic Platforms Raise Barriers-to-Entry

October 22, 2013 – Investment Banking: FICC at the Nadir

October 15, 2013 – Visa/MasterCard: Structural Weakness in the US Business Model

October 2, 2013 – Payments: Tokenization Increases Large-Bank Leverage over Visa and MasterCard

September 29, 2013 – Payments: MCX and the Advantage of the Amex and Chase “Closed-Loop” Networks

September 27, 2013 – Regional Banks: The Advantaged Deposit Franchise of WFC

September 18, 2013 – Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators (AUDIO)

September 16, 2013 - Regional Banks – WFC: Rising Net Interest Margin Will Lift 2015 EPS Estimates

September 10, 2013 – US Banks: Investors are Over-Discounting Tail Risk

September 6, 2013 – Payments: The Threat to Visa/MasterCard from MCX

September 5, 2013 – US Banks: Margin Nirvana – Rising Short Rates and a Steepening Curve

September 3, 2013 – Payments: The Distribution Opportunity for Discover in Debit

August 14, 2013 – V, MA, DFS, AXP: Court Finding Signals End of Visa/MasterCard Duopoly in Signature Debt

August 9, 2013 – Mobile Payments: Magnetic Stripe Cards will be as Obsolete as Audio-Cassette Tapes by 2017

August 7, 2013 – Mobile Payments: The Evolution from Loyalty Rewards to Branded Currency

August 5, 2013 – Mobile Payments: At the Tipping Point

July 31, 2013 – European Banks: Barclays Over-Discounted

July 28, 2013 – Expect JPM Net Interest Margin to Increase 25% by 2015

July 22, 2013 – US Banks: The Coming Tailwind to Bank Revenues and Earnings From Rising Net Interest Margins

July 14, 2013 – Valuing US Banks Using Tangible Return-on-Equity

July 10, 2013 – New FDIC Leverage Rules Will Pressure European Regulators

July 8, 2013 – US Regional Banks: Balance Sheet Effects at WFC and RF

July 8, 2013 – Implications of New US Capital Rules

July 1, 2013 – US Banks: Duration and Convexity Risk in AFS Debt Portfolios

Consumer

April 22, 2014 – Corn Planting Progress Remains Sluggish

April 16, 2014 – Quick Thoughts – Corn, Inflation and the Consumer

April 15, 2014 – KO Quick Thoughts

April 7, 2014 – Discretionary vs. Staples, Growth vs. Value – Updated

April 2, 2014 – Lackluster Spending Growth: Seems like the Market Has Decided It is the Weather

March 31, 2014 – Corn Futures Above $5/bushel: Lower Prices Spur Demand + Less Acreage than Expected

March 26, 2014 – Pressure in the Dairy Complex

March 23, 2014 – Global Agriculture: A Powerful Long-Term Theme, but Near-Term Concerns Abound

March 10, 2014 – Consumer Staples: Who’s Minding Your Capital?

March 7, 2014 -Household Net Worth: Records Are Made to Be Broken

March 5, 2014 – Consumer Staples Earnings Wrap

March 3, 2014 – Spending, M&A and Other Consumer Odds and Ends

February 24, 2014 – What I Learned From the CAGNY Presentations

February 20, 2014 – WMT and Retail

February 18, 2014 – Retail Sales and Retail Earnings

February 10, 2014 – What Can Consumer Behavior in December Tell Us About ’14? Plenty…

February 6, 2014 – PM: Q4 Better Than Feared (Actually Quite Good)

February 5, 2014 – CVS to Tobacco: It’s You, Not Me

February 3, 2014 – SYY: Profitable Sales Growth Remains Elusive

January 30, 2014 – It’s Cold Outside and We Are Flush With Earnings

January 29, 2014 – Baby It’s Cold Outside

January 27, 2014 – Consumer Sectors Updated

January 24, 2014 – KMB and PG: Better Than Feared and Better Than the Rest

January 24, 2014 – MCD and SBUX: Opposite Ends of the Growth Spectrum

January 22, 2014 – Restaurants May Have Bigger Issues than a Polar Vortex (or two)

January 16, 2014 – BBY in a Nutshell

January 16, 2014 – BF.B: Life After BEAM

January 15, 2014 – Retail Sales in a Single Table

January 13, 2014 – BEAM Going Away

January 10, 2014 – Whither Consumer Credit

January 5, 2013 – From Colorado to California, A Mighty Wind is Puffing

January 2, 2013 – The Minimum Wage Debate, Resumed

December 19, 2013 – DRI: The Story Isn’t Over

December 17, 2013 – SYY: 1+2=?

December 12, 2013 – DRI Management and Capital Allocation

December 11, 2013 – Household Net Worth Continues to Increase

December 9, 2013 – More on Unemployment

December 5, 2013 – Consumer Staples: What if the Utility Sector and the Consumer Discretionary Sector had a Baby?

November 20, 2013 – October Retail Sales +0.4%

November 19, 2013 – Home Depot: Business Momentum Continues

November 18, 2013 – EPA and Ethanol in ’14

November 13, 2013 – A Look at Unemployment

November 11, 2013 – Home Improvement Trends Should Remain Robust

November 5, 2013 – Food Stamps: Small Cut That Hits a Whole Lot of People

October 30, 2013 – Growth vs. Value: Why Consumer Discretionary Looks Unattractive to Us

October 28, 2013 – MOS/CF: Clever Bit of Financial Engineering for Both Companies

October 25, 2013 – Quick Look at NWL

October 19, 2013 – DRI: Multiple Ways to Win with a Favorable Risk/Reward – $6 Down/$20 Up

October 14, 2013 – Restaurant EPS: Lather, Rinse and Repeat?

October 11, 2013 – More From the EPA on the Ethanol Mandate

October 10, 2013 – Solid FCF + Lousy Stock Price Performance + Long-tenured Management = The Siren’s Song for Activism

October 7, 2013 – September Spending Woes

October 3, 2013 – Consumer Spending Into, Through and Out of The Great Recession

October 1, 2013 – August Home Prices +12.4%

September 27, 2013 – PETM: Returning Cash to Shareholders

September 27, 2013 – Household Balance Sheet Continues to Improve, But…

September 23, 2013 – We’ve Talked Houses, How About Households?

September 17, 2013 – MOS Trims Expectations as Near Term Weakness Abounds

September 9, 2013 – What Drives Home Improvement Spending?

September 4, 2013 – The Minimum Wage Debate

August 26, 2013 – Is an Ugly New Home Sales Number the Start of a Trend?

August 20, 2013 – Some Thoughts on HD’s Q2 Results

August 15, 2013 – Some Thoughts on the Latest Reading of the NAHB Index

August 13, 2013 – A Look at the Restaurant Sector Post Earnings

August 6, 2013 – The EPA Speaks on the 2013 and 2014 RFS

August 6, 2013 – Home Prices Continue Upward

August 5, 2013 – Potash: Breaking Up Apparently Isn’t That Hard to Do

August 2, 2013 – A Quick Look at Residential Construction Employment

August 1, 2013 – Additional Thoughts on the Disruption in the Fertilizer Market

July 30, 2013 - Weekly Retail Sales Results Indicate XLY May Be Poised for a Pullback

July 30, 2013 – Fertilizer Turmoil

July 25, 2013 – Has Anyone Looked at the Price of RINs Lately?

July 25, 2013 – Providing Some Context for a Solid New Home Sales Number in June

July 24, 2013 – Panera (PNRA): Q2 Results and the Broader Group

July 23, 2013 – McDonald’s (MCD) and Inflation

July 17, 2013 – Restaurants: Tough To Find Value

July 16, 2013 – Positive Data Point on Housing for a Slow July Day

July 11, 2013 – Crude Oil and the XLY

July 10, 2013 – Family Dollar (FDO) and the Low-End Consumer

July 9, 2013 – Need More Reasons to Be Bullish on Housing-Related Consumer Names?

July 2, 2013 – The State of the US Consumer

 

 


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