Industrials & Materials

Mr. Copley joined SSR as a Senior Partner in January 2012. He is a chemical engineer by education and has spent roughly half of his career in the chemical industry and half in investment research and equity management. Most recently Mr. Copley was Head of US Equities for Macquarie Securities Group, a Board director of Macquarie Securities USA (the broker dealer) for 3 years, and a member of the US management committee of Macquarie. Prior to Macquarie, Mr. Copley held the role of Global Head of Equity Research for HSBC. In addition to management roles in the equity business, he was a research analyst at Sanford C Bernstein & Co. LLC from 1996 to 2004, covering the chemical industry, where he was consistently ranked within the top three analysts in the sector.

 

 

Coverage Universe

Capital Goods: Caterpillar, Deere, ITW, Cummins, Eaton, Stanley Black & Decker, Parker Hannifin, Dover, Ingersoll Rand, Crane, Paccar, Pall, Flowserve, Donaldson, Timken, Pentair, Lincoln Electric, IDEX, Graco, Oshkosh, Joy Global, Agco, Westinghouse AB, SPX Corp, Kennametal, Snap-On, Woodward, Nordson CLARCOR, Valmont, Trinity

Chemicals: Dow, DuPont, Air Products, PPG, Sherwin Williams, Ashland, IFF, Valspar, Newmarket, Cabot, Olin, Praxair, Airgas, LyondellBassell, Westlake, Huntsman, Rockwell, Cytec, Sigma Aldrich, Eastman, Albermarle, RPM, HB Fuller, PolyOne, Georgia Gulf (Axiall)

Conglomerates: GE, 3M, UTX, Honeywell, Carlisle, Danaher 

Electrical Equipment: Emerson, Rockwell, Ametek, Hubble, Roper, Regal Beloit, Brady, II-VI, Franklin, Belden, General Cable, EnerSys

E&C: Fluor, Jacobs, URS, Quanta, KBR, AECOM, EMCOR

Metals and Mining: Alcoa, Newmont, Nucor, Cliffs, Carpenter, Commercial Metals, US Steel, Worthington, Freeport, Allegheny, Reliance Steel, Steel Dynamics, Compass Minerals

Packaging: Bemis, Ball, Sonoco, Sealed Air, Owens Illinois, Greif, Rock-Tenn, Aptar, Silgan, Packaging Corp of America, Crown Holdings

Paper: IP, Mead, Louisiana Pacific, Domtar

Transports: UPS, FedEx, Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, Kansas City Southern, Landstar, Genesee Wyoming, Old Dominion, Ryder, Expeditors International, CH Robinson, Hertz, JB Hunt, CSX

Recent Blog Posts

Deere – The Floor Looks Robust

HB Fuller – Blaming SAP, But Where is the Growth?

More Ethylene From Lyondell – Unlikely to Discourage Others

Keeping DuPont Together – Corporate Denial or Corporate Vision?

Oil – The Big Uncertainty for US Chemicals

Strong Manufacturing – Buy Industrial Gases

SWK – Business Momentum to Continue

Lyondell Numbers and Very Weak NGLs Bode Well for Westlake

Dow – Good Quarter Understates Potential

Aluminum – A Short Term Bubble or the Real Thing

DuPont – Lower Guidance But Big Savings Ahead

APD – A Wise, But Not Long-Term, Compromise

Westlake – Another Interesting Move – Vinnolit

DuPont/Tronox – The Math Says Yes – The Rest Says No

Natural Gas – Chance of a Price Spike?

Westlake – Showing/Giving Us The Money

DuPont – Sifting Through the Noise We Saw What We Wanted to See

European Chemicals – The Saber Rattling Starts – At Last

Commodity Chemicals – Setting up for Disappointment

News From Inside the Fridge – Beware Commodity Chemicals

14 for 14 Portfolio Update – January Performance: A Better Start than Denver – Just!

Painting By Numbers – Still Too High

DOW – Better Earnings – But Probably Only Adds Fuel to the Debate

CAT – By Some Measures Still a Long Way to Go

Activism and Chemicals – A Fad or an Opportunity?

Playing Catch Up

The Great Ethylene Debate

Dow – Setting Up For a Spin

DuPont – Now the Real Story Can Unfold

CAT-astrophic? Not In Our View

Grangemouth: A Taste of What is to Come for European Chemicals

Aluminum: Demand is Not the Issue

HUN/ROC Consolidation in Part in Response to China – The First of Many?

China Part 2: A Rational China? It Depends on Where You are Standing

“I am Worried About New Capacity in China” – “How Do I Improve My Business”

Potash – Breaking Up Apparently Isn’t That Hard to Do

Additional Thoughts on the Disruption in the Fertilizer Market

Fertilizer Turmoil

Chemicals: Complexity Hitting Home – But Volatile Distraction is the Focus

Where is the Growth? – Try Industrial Gas

Aluminum – NYT Article: Interesting, But Perhaps Missing a Key Point or Two

DuPont – A Reminder of the Opportunity

Ethylene – Unlikely to Be a Quick Fix for Williams

MMM – Increasing A Bet That The Industry Makes Poorly: Could 3M Do Better? 

Discounting ComplexityGetting Left Behind – Hard For Industrials To Keep Pace With This Market

Confidence Gone? – If So, It’s a Long Way Down for Some; A Buying Opportunity for Others

Aluminum – Focus On The Bigger Picture

Petrochemical Investment – Doing the Right Thing For Yourself But Possibly Ruining It For Everybody

Q1 Review – Still Minimal Appetite For Risk

The Mood of the Chemical Industry – Its Déjà vu, Almost

Low Cost US – The Shift Is Underway, SLOWLY Reversing a 40 Year Trend

Optimism Everywhere – A Look at the S&P 500

Caution Abounds, But Guidance for 2013 Almost Certain To Be Wrong

China Exports Rising – How Happy Should We Be?

Slower Growth – Harder Decisions

FedEx – Incorrectly Packaged

Guarding Against Optimists

Optimism In Estimates At Odds With Economic Pessimism

The Fickle Face of Fuel and Feedstocks

Slower Growth – Companies Talking the Talk; Will They Walk the Walk?

Slowdowns Breed Commoditization 

Coatings Expensive? The Sellers Seem to Think So!

M&A Follow Up

Grossly Impressed – US Industrials Gross Margin Expansion Suggests Innovation is Alive and Well 

ISM- Increasingly Slower Manufacturing

Coming To America

Election Special

London Calling – Help 

GWR Buys RA – An Opportunity To Get In On The Game, But Taking a Chance

PPG-Georgia Gulf Business Combination – Sensible 

The Risk of Failure Leads to Relatively Worthless Analysis – An Opinion 

What’s In A House – Sadly Not Enough

It’s Easy to Argue Against Opinion, Much Harder Against Data – Ask Tom

June Review: Still No Overall Reason To Get Excited, Plus A Quick Take on the ISM

Sector & Sovereign Industrials & Basic Materials: Monthly Review, May 2012

Inventory/Sales Follow Up

Significant Downside Risk From an Inventory Correction – The Stars Are Aligned

Industrials and Basics – We Should Be Deal Shy

Chemicals Skepticism – A Wide Divergence, Commodities vs Coatings

The SSR Industrials & Basic Materials Skepticism Index

Q1 So Far: Some Tears, Some Laughter, No Real Conviction

Metals and Mining: Discounting Much More Than Appears To Be Going On

North American Commodity Chemicals: Shale Gale Maybe, Windfall More Definitely 

Sector and Sovereign Industrials Launch 

Research Archive

When published, registered clients will be able to access the full-text of Graham Copley’s published research here.

Audio Archive

New content coming soon

 

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