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Sector & Sovereign Research

Stamford, CT

Industrials / Basic Materials

Graham Copley

Healthcare

Richard Evans

Tech / Media / Telecom

Paul Sagawa

SSR LLC

is a differentiated investment research boutique built to provide an essential, yet missing, element of research: the weighting of sub-sectors within broad industrial categories.  By simultaneously maintaining both a broad view of our industries, a fundamentally detailed view of the sub-sectors that make up these industries, and the most interesting stocks that make up those industries, we offer guidance on portfolio composition that we believe is both highly impactful, and otherwise unavailable. Learn More…


Healthcare

On a sales-weighted basis, prices (paid by retailers) for US generics rose 4.7% in 1Q15, substantially faster than in 4Q14 (0.5%), and on par with the average pace of inflation (5.1%) seen since early 2013. All else held equal, generic price inflation aids the gross margins of drug wholesalers (e.g. ABC, CAH, MCK), thus the healthy generic inflation observed in 1Q15 is a bullish early indicator for these names’ 1Q15 results. Despite carefully trying, we observe no correlation between generic manufacturers’ participation in US price inflation and either the quality of their immediate earnings or their relative share price performances…Read more

Tech / Media / Telecom

The TMT sector is in the midst of a comprehensive once-in-a-generation paradigm shift driven by the contemporaneous maturation of several key innovations that offer consumers and businesses new and significantly better ways to use information.  In this, we expect the few platforms that control user experiences (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, maybe AMZN) will capture a disproportionate share of value… Read more

Industrials / Materials

DuPont may have won the battle, albeit by a small margin, but in our view it is still very much in danger of losing the war.  Beating Trian in the recent proxy fight may be a cause for celebration in the DuPont board room, but if the board does not address a couple of key issues raised by Trian, it may be the last celebration for a while. DuPont’s complexity is hindering the company and is likely causing excessive optimism…Read more   

Financials

Financials Picture Web SizeWith its announcement of Snapcash on Monday, Snapchat (with a $10bn valuation in its last funding in August[1]) enters the market for integration of social media and person-to-person (P2P) payments in competition with PayPal’s Venmo (which handled over $300mm in consumer payments in FQ12014 putting it on a par with the SBUX mobile app – see Chart); the back-end for Snapchat is provided by Square which expands the potential reach of its Square Cash product to the 100mm MAU’s of Snapchat. These direct-messaging services compete… Read more

Consumer

Shopping CartsMcDonald’s (MCD) has had a difficult two (plus) year period, and the CEO during that period (Don Thompson) will not be part of any potential recovery as he was replaced last night by the company’s Chief Brand Officer, Steve Easterbrook.  While MCD unquestionably faces some secular issues related to the quality of its product offering, supplier issues in China and recently in Japan strike at what the company has long viewed as a competitive advantage – its supply chain.  Mr. Easterbrook clearly has a job of work ahead of him, but we continue to believe that, at current levels… Read more

Energy

Energy Initiation: The US is Drowning in Crude. morning after a serious earnings miss.  The strong US dollar has been a big headwind for all commodities, including crude oil, since the start of the third quarter with the DXY rising almost 8% Both Brent and WTI have fallen over 20% during the same period despite geopolitical concerns in significant…Read more   

 


 

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